What’s Next for the Kurds?An Analysis of a Perpetually Uncertain Future

Andrew Graves

Kurdish protestors waving the Kurdistan flag (Via: Al Jazeera)

As of February 2025, the Kurds are the largest stateless ethnic society in the world and, as such, have been persecuted by virtually every land they have ever inhabited for fear of stoking separatist sentiment. Spreading across sizable regions in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, respectively, the Kurds have been alongside and sometimes involved with many of the most influential geopolitical events of the 21st century. Most notably, Rojava (west), the Syrian Kurdish autonomous region, was a key US ally in the fight against ISIS in Syria and acted as a ‘democratic’ counterweight in a region notable for its autocratic regimes. 

Under the regime of Saddam Hussein, the Kurds found themselves victims of horrific crimes against humanity. The most notable of these events being the Halabja massacre, a large-scale chemical attack on civilians in the northeastern city of Halabja, which ultimately killed somewhere between 3200-5000 men, women, and children. This massacre was key in cementing Kurdish opposition to the regime and sparked years of brutal resistance before Saddam's famed invasion of Kuwait. 

As such, it should come as no surprise that the Kurdish minority is one of the most outspoken and frequently targeted ethnicities in all of Iran.

The most egregious contemporary example of Kurdish oppression, however, can be found in the modern Turkish state. This current conflict is the extension of a historical conflict between the two peoples, with sources claiming that the ‘modern phase of the conflict likely started in 1922 in the aftermath of the Armenian genocide.’ On the international stage, Turkey dashed any hopes of Kurdish statehood with the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne. On the ground, Turkey has undergone policies of forced assimilation and ethnic cleansing, with the settling of non-Kurds, armed abductions, and even forced sterilization campaigns. The aftermath of these efforts can be found throughout much of Kurdistan, with large triumphant Turkish flags flying across the city center’s anterior. 

Most recently, however, Syrian Kurdistan has once again found itself in the crosshairs of international strategy and regional geopolitics as a result of the dissolution of the Assad regime. 

A lynchpin of alliances and regional power brokers, the now HTS controlled Syria creates a complex and precarious situation for the Kurds. The dissolution of the Assad regime, while initially seen as an opportunity for greater autonomy, has instead left Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava) in a state of vulnerability. The rise of Hay‘at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a dominant force in Syria has further complicated the Kurdish quest for self-determination. HTS, a group that draws its roots back to Al-Qaeda, has shown little tolerance for Kurdish statehood or autonomy, viewing them as a threat to their vision of a unified Islamic state. This perceived threat has led to heightened tensions and sporadic clashes between Kurdish forces and HTS militants, further destabilizing the region. This, however, is secondary to the advances made by Turkey within Syria. 

Turkey remains one of the most significant challenges for not just Kurdish autonomy in Turkey proper but within Rojava as well. The ongoing conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has resulted in decades of violence and human rights abuses. Despite occasional peace talks and ceasefires, the conflict shows no signs of abating. 

Turkey's military invasion in northern Syria aimed to curb Kurdish influence and has further complicated the situation. The Turkish government views the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), as extensions of the PKK and has launched multiple incursions to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish autonomous region along the border.

In Iran, the Kurdish struggle for sovereignty continues to face severe repression. The Iranian government, wary of any separatist movements, being an autocratic yet ethnically diverse society, has cracked down on Kurdish political organizations and cultural expression. Kurdish regions in Iran are among the most economically disadvantaged, with high rates of poverty and unemployment heavily exacerbating tensions. Protests in recent years against the regime, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish woman, in police custody, have highlighted the broader discontent among Kurds and other ethnic minorities. However, the Iranian regime's brutal response to these protests has further entrenched this cycle of repression and resistance. 

The international community's role in the Kurdish question remains unclear. While the Kurds have received support from various Western powers, particularly the United States, this support has often been conditional and driven by strategic interests rather than a genuine commitment to Kurdish statehood. For instance, the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria in 2019, which paved the way for Turkey's military offensive, is a stark reminder of the precarious nature of international alliances. A decision mirrored by the Trump administration’s decision to do the same.

Ultimately, the Kurds' future remains uncertain. The lack of a unified Kurdish leadership and the divergent interests of Kurdish factions across different countries hinder the prospects of a cohesive movement for statehood. Internal divisions, coupled with external pressures, make it difficult for the Kurds to present a united front. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, characterized by shifting alliances and ongoing conflicts, offers little room for the Kurds to achieve their aspirations.

However, the Kurds' resilience and determination cannot be underestimated. Despite centuries of oppression and marginalization, they have managed to preserve their cultural identity and continue their struggle for rights and recognition. The recent protests in Iran and the continued resistance in Turkey and Syria show that the Kurdish quest for self-determination is far from over.

The Kurds are at a crossroads; they are both facing existential threats and untold opportunities. The path ahead is fraught with uncertainty, but their enduring spirit and commitment to their cause offer a glimmer of hope. Whether through greater international support, internal unity, or strategic alliances, the Kurds must navigate a perpetually changing landscape to secure a future where their rights and aspirations are finally considered.